Nuclear power generation in Ukraine can be completely replaced by more competitive alternative energy sources of energy by 2050 – new research shows.

Due to significant capital costs for construction, the long term (7-10 years) for commissioning and the constant unpredictable increase in the cost of nuclear power generation projects, it loses its competitiveness with other types of electricity generation, and this is important to consider during the post-war recovery of Ukraine.

This was substantiated in recent research by the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. Scientists conducted a sensitivity analysis of various scenarios with regard to technical and economic parameters - load factors and capital expenditures (CAPEX) for both nuclear and individual technologies of renewable generation in the study "What is the future of nuclear energy in Ukraine? The role of war, technical and economic factors and security considerations".

They used the TIMES-Ukraine model to create scenarios for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 under the conditions of further development of nuclear energy and without new nuclear power plant (NPP) capacities, from the point of view of different technical and economic scenarios: cost of NPP construction and capacity factors, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for different types of generation, including solar and wind. They also modeled various political decisions regarding the ban on the construction of new large or small nuclear power plants, restricting or extending the life of existing nuclear power plants, and various energy demand scenarios with optimistic assumptions of economic recovery.

“Decisions about the future of energy depend on both the economic viability and competitiveness (technical and economic factors) of nuclear power and alternative energy sources, as well as on concerns about potential safety issues and long-term environmental consequences, particularly related to nuclear waste. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the attacks on nuclear power facilities, additional considerations regarding the security were raised in the whole world and all this is reflected in the planning of new nuclear projects. This should also be a subject of study in Ukraine, especially when we talk about decentralization and the development of distributed energy resources, which is the most reliable solution for the energy system. Even under the conditions of an optimistic scenario of economic recovery of Ukraine, there is sufficient potential of renewable energy sources to meet our own needs,” says Oleksandr Diachuk, a leading researcher at the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences, co-author of the TIMES-Ukraine model.

“Political and business elites are trying to prolong the life of the nuclear industry, inject public investment into it and delay a just transition to clean energy by manipulating technologies and untested solutions such as small modular reactors (SMRs). Like fossil fuels, nuclear energy is a geopolitical weapon and a source of danger. From last March until today, every Ukrainian family has been asking themselves and the world - whether hiding in the basement will save us from an explosion at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. In order to disarm dictators and win a real energy victory, we must direct public and private investments in renewable energy and small distributed generation,” - says Svitlana Romanko, Founder and Director of Razom We Stand.

Taking into account the growing popularity of the idea of constructing small modular reactors (SMR) in the world and in Ukraine, it is important to consider that their role is still difficult to assess, since there is no sufficient practical data on their real full functioning in any country. The study by Institute of Economics and Forecasting shows that in case of restriction on building small modular reactors, which today the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine considers deploying in a significant number to replace old coal-fired power units of TPPs, the cost of decarbonization of the energy system as a whole, taking conservative economic scenarios for RES equipment costs and optimistic ones for SMRs, will increase by approx. by only 0.2%.

From the point of view of the development of new generating capacities, policymakers can consider alternative scenarios to the construction of nuclear power plants without significant public costs for the transition to clean energy, since decommissioned nuclear power plants can be fully replaced by alternative generation technologies in an economically competitive manner, given the presence of market incentives, according to the study.

“As of 2020, more than 52% of electricity in Ukraine was produced at nuclear power plants. At the same time, the originally designed lifespan of most of the country's nuclear power plants expire between 2025 and 2030, and although nuclear power is considered low-carbon, it is by no means renewable if you consider the entire life cycle, especially with the production and disposal of nuclear fuel. Long-term decisions regarding the possible extension of the operational period or the construction of new nuclear power plants must be made taking into account social, economic and environmental aspects. And they testify that the future lies in renewable energy sources,” - says Olha Yevstihnieieva, advocacy manager for green restoration at Razom We Stand.

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Jason Kirkpatrick, [email protected], Snr. Communications Mgr., Razom We Stand

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