The main goal of the initiative to create a global Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FFNPT), is the same as for the Paris Agreement: to prevent catastrophic climate change and keep global warming within 1.5-2 °C relative to the pre-industrial levels. But, unlike the Paris Agreement, which is focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and whose text does not contain any direct mention of fossil fuels, the initiative to create the FFNPT is aimed at the supply side climate policy - international regulation and limitation of fossil fuel production, which on the one hand is the main source of harmful emissions into the atmosphere, and on the other - a key source of income for anti-democratic regimes in the world.
Here we provide short explanations to prevent misinformation and address possible prejudices or myths about the FFNPT initiative.
1. Does supporting the FFNPT initiative mean the need to abandon nuclear power?
No. Nuclear energy is not in any way related to the FFNPT initiative and the operation of civilian nuclear power plants does not contradict its purpose and goals. The FFNPT initiative only targets the expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure and new coal, oil and gas projects, which account for more than 80% of all greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If the situation is not changed immediately, the planet will face the consequences of global warming, which will exceed 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels in the next 10 years. Such rapid climate change will cause uncontrollable temperature events costing national governments trillions of dollars. That is why curtailing investments in fossil fuels and directing them to green technologies is necessary today.
2. Does joining the FFNPT mean the immediate need to close existing fossil fuel production?
No. Existing fossil fuel extraction projects will supply humanity's needs during the green transition. The FFNPT initiative advocates abandoning new fossil fuel extraction projects, stopping the expansion of oil and gas infrastructure, and redirecting future investments to renewable energy sources and energy-efficient technologies, the potential of which is quite sufficient for the green transition by 2050. Any new investments in coal, oil and gas projects do not comply with either the Paris Agreement or the European Green Deal and, in addition to reputational damage, destructive effects on the environment and human health, are most likely to be economically unsuccessful against the background of the development of renewable sources, especially solar, wind and bioenergy.
3. Will Ukraine be able to make a green transition and survive using only renewable energy sources?
Yes. This is evidenced by the research of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences, assessments of the potential of Ukrainian renewable energy sources by IRENA, the World Bank and the Joint Research Center of the European Commission. The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is technologically possible even at the current level of development with a multi-year perspective. Undoubtedly, this is an extremely ambitious and difficult process for Ukraine, which will require the mobilization of significant institutional and financial efforts. But in the conditions of a country's reconstruction, such efforts are necessary under any scenario. And only the scenario of sustainable development will guarantee that they will not be useless. Smart electrification, transition to energy-saving and efficient technologies, decentralization and improvement of energy security, replacement of natural gas with synthetic and bio-methane in the existing gas infrastructure - these are the elements of the green transition that will create a new quality of life for all citizens of Ukraine, optimize energy costs and bring the development of the economy to an ultra-modern level, and in technological development it will raise it to the level of advanced states. This will allow communities creating ample opportunities for attracting private funds.
4. What will public support for the FFNPT initiative bring to Ukraine?
FFNPT is a global Initiative that is supported today by three thousand outstanding scientists from the best academic environments working on the green transition of the planet, including 101 Nobel Laureates. Guided by the fact that the extraction and burning of fossil fuels is the main source of environmental risks for public health, the World Health Organization (WHO) and almost 200 medical associations from around the world made a statement in support of the FFNPT on September 14. Joining the initiative will put Ukraine in line with such world cities as, for example: London, Sydney, Los Angeles, Barcelona, Toronto. Maintaining a clear position on the decarbonization of the economy will open opportunities for cooperation with the best experts on the planet to plan and implement the best model of Ukraine's energy independence. Support for the FFNPT initiative will also allow the world's largest private investors and governments to broadly announce ambitious climate projects. From a geopolitical point of view, Ukraine will gain new leverage by joining the process of institutionalization of the Fossil Fuel Nonproliferation Treaty.
5. What are the prospects of the FFNPT as a new international treaty?
Institutionalization of the FFNPT initiative as a new international treaty with the active participation of Ukraine will allow to obtain a new transparent and powerful tool of international economic policy regarding fossil fuels. In particular, the creation of this Treaty involves the convening of a global commission on fossil fuels, which should conduct an analysis of information from the global registry of fossil fuel reserves and formulate recommendations for governments on setting goals for reducing fossil fuel production and on the basis of fair and balanced international principles.
Obviously, at the stage of establishing the Treaty, countries whose economy is built on the extraction and export of fossil fuels, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC cartel, will not support it and may try to actively oppose its signing by other countries. But support from developed democracies will be sufficient to develop and implement new international mechanisms to accelerate the world's transition from fossil fuels to clean and affordable renewable energy sources.
Such tools and features of the FFNPT as independent verification, publicity and reliability of data on the cost of fossil fuels, as well as on greenhouse gas emissions created at the production stage (in particular, methane leaks, flaring), will allow to establish fair and transparent supply side climate policies through diplomatic and economic means.
Why Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty is important?
We need such Treaty to address multiple crises – energy, climate and security – that are ravaging the world today. For this urge all democratic and accountable governments to provide comprehensive support to the processes related to the institutionalization of the Fossil Fuel Non-proliferation Treaty.