A new study published by a research team of Ukrainian nationals and researchers from Oxford University’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment shows that only 33% of spending in the National Recovery Plan, presented by the Ukrainian government in 2022 in Lugano, is likely to support climate mitigation outcomes, well below the 42% European average of state funding deployed to support economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, researchers identified that at least 6% of proposed recovery spending in Ukraine could have detrimental effects both for the climate and long-term economic development.
The working paper “The Green Phoenix Framework: Climate-Positive Plan for Economic Recovery in Ukraine” analyses the $750 bn package of investment policies announced by the Ukrainian government in the framework of Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan 2022 and provides recommendations on how to align the recovery efforts with long-term decarbonization goals, and fill in the structural gaps in the governmental plan.
“Ukraine has the potential to become a green phoenix, rising out of the ashes of war and using its economic recovery to become a leader in the global energy transition”, says Anastasiia Zagoruichyk, lead author, and researcher at Oxford’s Smith School. “Our report is the first to thoroughly analyse Ukraine’s economic recovery plans from a climate change mitigation and adaptation perspective, and we hope it will help policymakers to take bold action and seize the benefits of a green recovery while attracting international capital for deployment of clean technologies in Ukraine.”
The report analyses 2022 Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan and finds that only 33% of recovery spending ($253bn) is likely to support climate mitigation outcomes, while 6% ($46bn) of planned investments are expected to worsen climate change, for example, through subsidising fossil fuels. The report provides suggestions on how the plan can be improved to promote environmental objectives without compromising economic performance and proposes new policies to fill gaps in existing plans and ensure long-term prosperity without accelerating emissions.
“The dedication of the US, UK, the EU and the broader international community to support Ukraine’s economic recovery, as well as the substantial work already carried out by the Ukrainian government, puts Ukraine in a favourable position to bring in massive foreign investment for rebuilding its infrastructure and industry with modern, clean technologies. To harness this potential most effectively, planning of economic recovery should take an integrated approach and take into account complexities and interdependencies that are associated with decarbonization and the transition to new technologies”, says Oleh Savytskyi, co-author of the study and PhD candidate and campaigns manager of Razom We Stand.
“For Ukraine’s economic recovery to succeed, each and every policy should be designed to uphold environmental and social welfare goals while building on existing areas of competitive economic advantages that Ukraine can mobilise in the post-war reconstruction, including vast potential for deployment of renewables and clean industrial production of much-needed products, including green steel, solar cells and batteries”, says Ievgeniia Kopytsia, co-author of the study, associate professor at Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University and research associate of Oxford Net Zero, award holder from the British Academy Researchers at Risk Fellowship.
Drawing lessons from COVID-19 recovery models developed at the University of Oxford, the authors argue that prioritising green initiatives in Ukraine’s recovery could help to immediately address urgent war-related needs, such as the security of energy supply and resilience of critical infrastructure, while also providing long-term economic benefits, reducing the risks of stranded assets, and supporting the environment. It also proposes practical ways to replace climate-negative policies with clean ones, such as scaling green energy production rather than investing in fossil gas.
Release of the report follows the conclusion of the international Ukraine Recovery Conference 2023, which took place on June 20-21 in London, and highlights the UK government’s vital role in supporting Ukraine’s green transition, including through capacity building and knowledge-sharing.
NOTES FOR EDITORS:
- For media enquiries, please contact Oleh Savytskyi (oleh@razomwestand.org) and Lucy Erickson (lucy.erickson@smithschool.ox.ac.uk).
- Lead author Anastasiia Zagoruichyk and co-authors are available for comments.
- The working paper “The Green Phoenix Framework: Climate-Positive Plan for Economic Recovery in Ukraine” is available to download here:
https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/The-Green-Phoenix-Framework-a-climate-positive-plan-for-economic-recovery-in-Ukraine.pdf
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